Why this spring selling season will be different from any other

The city is bracing for a spring selling season like never before, bolstered by fevered demand from locked-down interstate buyers desperate for a slice of Gold Coast real estate.

The real estate industry has traditionally set its collective calendar to September 1 to mark the start of the peak season in inquiry, listings and sales — and looking forward, as a barometer of the state of the market.

But in 2021, extended lockdowns in NSW and Victoria have accelerated unprecedented growth in demand — and prices — as buyers prioritise lifestyle and look to relocate permanently or invest in a perceived safe haven in the sunshine state.

With buyer activity tipped to continue at frenetic pace, local real estate agents have implored prospective sellers to take advantage of favourable market conditions in the hope of easing a critical lack of supply.

Harcourts Coastal director Dane Atherton said “spring-like activity” had been experienced through the traditionally slower winter months of July and August.

“I think we are going to see a continuation of the incredible lack of supply and incredible demand,” Mr Atherton said.

“We might see listings slightly increased because of the seasonal nature of sellers wanting to come on to the market in spring, but that is going to be more than absorbed by an oversupply of buyers.

“I don’t think that is going to change. In fact, lockdowns often fuel transactions for us. The longer the southern states are in lockdown, the more anxious they are to secure a piece of Gold Coast real estate,” he said.

Australian Bureau of Statistics 2020 data shows more than 18,000 Sydney residents and 12,000 Victorians had moved interstate since the pandemic.

With interstate transactions already accounting for around 30 per cent of the marketplace, Kollosche principal Michael Kollosche said remote property inspections and auctions were now standard practice within the industry.

“You have to do it these days on every listing, to make it available for people who are interstate or offshore. You just don’t know what is going to happen from one day to the next,” Mr Kollosche said.

“I think we will see more of the same, with record prices being achieved month-on-month with the limited supply driving the market.

“I think we’ll probably see a lot of interstate buyers through that spring season. That will be the largest sector of the buyer market,” he said.

Latest data from REA Group reveals the suburbs expected to heat up most this spring, based on growth in sales listings over the 12 months to July, compared with the previous year.

Listings were up 51 per cent in the acreage suburb of Gilston bordering the Nerang River, followed by Burleigh Heads and Surfers Paradise, up 38 per cent and 37 per cent respectively.

Other top-ranked suburbs were: Mermaid Waters; Highland Park; Tallebudgera Valley; Tallebudgera; Biggera Waters; South Stradbroke; and Palm Beach.

A different snapshot emerged for the volume of total sales listings over the year, with the northern growth corridor suburbs of Pimpama, Coomera, Helensvale and Upper Coomera ranked highest.

REA Group head of economic research Cameron Kusher said the lack of supply was the greatest challenge for the Gold Coast’s property market heading into the spring season.

“I think we will probably see quite a strong increase in listings early in spring,” Mr Kusher said.

“We have seen a lot of people migrating to southeast QLD from NSW and Victoria and we can already see search volumes from those states are very strong, so the messaging from the real estate agents would be, ‘get your property on the market; interstate buyers are in lockdown so they have the time to look for property’.

“And then on the other side of that, there is not much coming online in Sydney because they are in lockdown,” he said.

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National data from CoreLogic shows new listings rose by an average of 15.7 per cent in spring over the ten years to 2019, while sales were up 6.8 per cent.

CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen said listings dropped in capital cities during periods of extended lockdowns, leading buyers to postpone property purchases in those centres.

“Household savings remain elevated, new average mortgage rates continue to reach new record lows, and many government fiscal stimulus and broader institutional responses have been resurrected amid renewed lockdowns,” Ms Owen said.

Amir Mian, principal of Amir Prestige, said living with the restrictions of the pandemic had forced a change on the nation’s psyche, where people most valued time spent at home or in the local community with family or friends.

“Lifestyle is becoming the determining factor. People are on the move; they want to invest in themselves and in their families, and it starts from a feeling that we are more inclined to live for today,” Mr Mian said.

“While people are in lockdown in some states they are unhappy and dissatisfied with their quality of life, but on the Gold Coast people right now are happy. They are content and they are living the dream, and when we are driven by internal satisfaction that is a very compelling reason for people to invest in our market.”

But Ms Owen warned the widening threat of Covid-19’s Delta strain could disrupt the season.

“With affordability constraints becoming a larger obstacle in the market, as well as the potential for tighter credit conditions further down the track, if buyer activity does not match the lift in listings we could see a gradual rebalancing between sellers and buyers,” she said.

SUBURBS WITH THE MOST LISTINGS

Pimpama 1069

Coomera 1020

Helensvale 758

Upper Coomera 725

Southport 600

Hope Island 579

Ormeau 521

Robina 468

Broadbeach Waters 403

Pacific Pines 386

*Source: realestate.com.au total sales listings per suburb, 12 months to July 2021

SUBURBS WHERE LISTINGS HAVE RISEN

Gilston 51%

Burleigh Heads 38%

Surfers Paradise 37%

Mermaid Waters 33%

Tallebudgera Valley 25%

Tallebudgera 24%

Biggera Waters 20%

South Stradbroke 20%

Palm Beach 18%

SUBURBS WHERE LISTINGS HAVE FALLEN

Beechmont 56%

Gaven 37%

Arundel 30%

Coomera 29%

Kingsholme 29%

Ormeau 26%

Boyland 24%

Canungra 23%

Mount Nathan 21%

Oxenford 17%

*Source: realestate.com.au total growth in listings per suburb, 12 months to July 2021

RENTAL HOTSPOTS

Pimpama 1189

Coomera 715

Southport 584

Upper Coomera 535

Robina 405

Ormeau 363

Helensvale 307

Labrador 297

Hope Island 279

Palm Beach 264

*Source: realestate.com.au number of rental listings per suburb, 12 months to July 2021

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