How Long Will Covid-19 Coronavirus Vaccine Protection Last?

When Nelly Furtado sang All Good Things (Come to an End) in 2006, she probably wasn’t referring to the protection offered by the Covid-19 vaccines. Nevertheless, few believe that the immune response to the Covid-19 vaccines will last forever. Even if you are fully vaccinated now, you will likely have to get another booster shot sometime in the future. The question is when. And the answer is wait for it, wait for it.

Right now the guess is sometime between six months and two years after you were fully vaccinated the first time around. Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla did address this question during a recent Axios interview seen here:

As you can see, Bourla said that the data supports “the notion that likely there will be a need for a booster somewhere between 8 and 12 months.” So perhaps the Covid-19 vaccine will be a bit like the seasonal flu vaccine, a yearly thing. However, as Carlie Porterfield has reported for Forbes, not everyone agrees yet with this possibility.

There are two reasons why booster shots will probably be needed at some point. First of all, your immune system can be like your significant other when it comes to remembering things like birthdays, anniversaries, doing the dishes, wiping down your One Direction shrine, taking out the trash, and spike proteins. Both can forget things over time. The Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Johnson & Johnson Covid-19 vaccines expose your immune system to the spike proteins that stud the surface of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2). When seeing these spike proteins for the first time, your immune system essentially says, “what the bleep are these? They don’t belong in your body. Let’s respond ‘out of spike’ by setting up defenses against anything that wears these spike proteins.” Once you are fully vaccinated, your immune system is ready, raring to take on anything that has the spike protein.

But this may not be a permanent state of preparedness. It’s like when someone first warns you not to wear that velour leopard-print track suit. This “don’t wear the leopard track suit, don’t wear the leopard track suit” warning may stick in your head for a little while, but eventually the day comes when you start to think, “maybe I am a leopard?” Similarly, your immune response to the Covid-19 vaccines may eventually wane over time. After all, your immune system is busy with so many other things. That’s a periodic reminder about the spike protein in the form of a booster shot may be helpful, just like a periodic “what the bleep are you wearing” may keep you from a fashion faux pas or a a fashion four paws.

So far, the Phase 3 clinical trials for the Covid-19 vaccines have not shown evidence of waning immunity. But the clinical trials have not gone on long enough yet to say much about what happens past a half year. For example, both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna Phase 3 clinical trials began enrolling in late July 2020. So the earliest that any of the trial participants became fully vaccinated was last September. That means unless you have a time machine made from either a hot tub or a DeLorean, the longest follow-up available right now for any of the trial participants is about eight months.

Last month, coincidentally on April Fools Day, Pfizer and BioNTech announced that among their Phase 3 clinical trial participants the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine, affectionately known as BNT162b2, was 91.3% effective against Covid-19 and 100% effective against severe Covid-19. Since this announcement covered trial results through March 13, 2021, some of the trial participants had gotten their second dose of the vaccine six months prior. These effectiveness numbers came from the following numbers: 647 cases of Covid-19 among those who had received placebo versus 50 among those who has received the Covid-19 vaccine and 32 cases of severe Covid-19 among the placebo group versus zero in the BNT162b2 vaccinated group.

Now a company announcement is not the same as a scientific study published in a respectable peer-reviewed journal. Comparing the two can be like comparing you signing the song Promiscuous in the shower to your loofah with Furtado singing the song in the studio. So anything in the announcement is about as definitive as a trailer for a movie. Regardless, as of now, it seems like the Covid-19 vaccines should protect you for at least six months.

A second reason why booster shots may be needed is variants. The SARS-CoV2 is somewhat like the television franchise The Real Housewives. New versions keep emerging. It’s not clear when The Real Housewives of Slickpoo, Idaho, may appear. Similarly, it’s not clear if and when there will be a SARS-CoV2 variant that has a spike protein different enough to merit a new type of booster. The likelihood of this eventually occurring is fairly high since the Covid-19 coronavirus has a high underlying mutation rate. In other words, every time the viruses make copies of themselves, mistakes and thus slightly different genetic codes frequently result. Mutations probably allowed the virus to gain the ability to jump from other animals to humans. They may some day generate a variant that can better avoid the current vaccines’ protection.

Of course, the degree and duration of protection offered by the vaccine may vary from person to person. Therefore, don’t treat the vaccine like you would a gigantic concrete full body condom. It won’t provide perfect protection, and cracks in the protection can form over time. And while cracks may be obvious when wearing low-riding pants, they may not be that obvious with vaccine protection. Trial participants may not realize that their immunity is waning until their measured antibody levels start dropping or more breakthrough infection occur. So until more is known, take additional precautions while the Covid-19 coronavirus is still actively spreading around you. Don’t rely solely on the vaccine. Continue to wash your hands, disinfect surfaces, and social distance within reason when you can. This isn’t the best time to return to those Twister with strangers games. You don’t want to find out that you’ve lost protection the hard way.

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