3 Concerns With Moving The Start Of Hurricane Season To May 15th

I will start this article off by saying this. I understand. According to the Washington Post, the National Hurricane Center and its parent organization NOAA are mulling over the prospect of moving the start of the Atlantic hurricane season from June 1st to May 15th. This action is in response to a recommendation by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that NOAA evaluate the implications or ramifications of such a move. Either way, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will begin issuing Tropical Weather Outlets on May 15th in 2021. If you read my columns frequently, you probably know that I am the former President of the American Meteorological Society and a huge NOAA NHC supporter. However, here are three concern that I have about moving the start of the hurricane season to May 15th.

Winter Storm Alex Upgraded to Hurricane — IN SPACE – JANUARY 14: In this handout from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration … [+] (NOAA), Hurricane Alex is seen in the Atlantic after being upgraded from a storm on January 14, 2016. Alex is the first named storm to form in the Atlantic in January since 1978, the first January-born hurricane since 1938, and just the fourth known storm to arrive in the month since records began in 1851. This image was taken by GOES East at 1445Z. (Photo by NOAA via Getty Images)

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It is important to note that I am playing “devil’s advocate” herein. I know many of the outstanding colleagues likely involved in assessing the proposed move, and they will arrive at sound conclusions based on science, risk, and risk warning needs. Having said that, my first concern is rooted in a much broader concern about public messaging about hurricanes. For example, I increasingly find the imbalance in focus on “category” versus “impact” to be problematic. While the National Weather Service is shifting its focus to impact-based messaging, much of the media, social media, and public are often hampered with statements like “Will it be a high-end category 3 storm or low end category 4 storm”” or “Oh it’s just a tropical storm.” Such statements ignore that impacts are likely to be similar in the first scenario and that Hurricane Harvey mostly ravaged southeast Texas after it had been downgraded.

This same concern carries over into messaging hurricane season duration. While the Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1st (for now), I spend a lot of time conveying that August to October tends to encompass the peak of the season. Furthermore, I also share that seasonal projections of hurricane activity can be useful for long-range planning by businesses, emergency responders, and various agencies but that a single storm can be life-altering too. Be prepared either way.

National Hurricane Center Monitors Hurricane, Forming Storm In Atlantic — MIAMI, FL – AUGUST 25: Dennis Feltgen, Public Affairs Officer and a spokesperson for NOAA’s … [+] National Hurricane Center, (L) and Daniel Brown, Senior Hurricane Specialist, work at the National Hurricane Center to track the path of a weather disturbance that has produced tropical storm-force wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph in heavy squalls over some of the northern Caribbean islands and surrounding waters and is of concern to the South Florida region on August 25, 2016 in Miami, Florida. The National Hurricane Center forecasters are still trying to determine if the system will strengthen and it’s exact path isn’t known yet but they urge people to be aware and prepared. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

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Which brings me to my second concern – messaging. This concern is mostly related to human nature. The June 1st start is so ingrained in the culture that a change could create confusion with messaging. This is certainly not an insurmountable challenge but is something to think about. Ryan Truchelut and Erica Staehling recently opined in the Washington Post and make a compelling argument for changing the start date. Their outstanding piece traces the history of the current season designation and its intent to capture about 97% of hurricane activity. They also discuss recent trends in named storms outside of that window. In 2017, I wrote a Forbes article on this very topic as well and noted, “….Some have started to ask if the concept of a “hurricane season” is obsolete.” In 2016, Hurricane Alex formed in January, and the 2005 season had named storms well into the winter season.

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Hurricane season — When hurricanes form in the Atlantic basin.

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Even with these statistics and the likely influence of climate change on “out of season” storms, the vast majority of hurricanes will happen much later in the year. Phil Klotzbach is a hurricane expert at Colorado State University. He told Chris Perkins of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel that when people hear the term “hurricane season,” they expect hurricanes to form. However, it is extremely unlikely that a hurricane is going to form in May. With a May 15th date under consideration:

Will businesses fundamentally change aspects of their operations?
Will tourists and the vacation industry be changed in any way?
How will the insurance rates or other seasonal activities respond?

My third concern is from my scientist perspective but is also not necessarily a showstopper. From a climatological perspective, it is always easer to conduct an analysis when you are comparing “apples to apples.” A change in the start of the hurricane season creates a different period of consideration for scientific research and analysis. However, scientists are pretty smart folks. We’ll figure that out too.

Though not terribly relevant or compelling, the current start date of June 1st is also the start of meteorological summer. At the end of the day, however, storms don’t read calendars.

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